Modelling Regional Sustainable Development in Ukrainian Crisis and War

Modelowanie zrównoważonego rozwoju regionalnego podczas kryzysu i wojny w Ukrainie

Olena Shevchuk*, Olha Ilyash**, Glib Mazhara***,  
Nadiia Roshchyna****, Svitlana Hrynkevych*****,
Ruslan Lavrov******, Serhii Kozlovskyi*******

*National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine
E-mail: shevchuk-oa@ukr.net, ORCID: 0000-0003-4117-1474
**National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute,
Kyiv, Ukraine
E-mail: oliai@meta.ua, ORCID: 0000-0002-7882-3942
***National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine
E-mail: skydoor13@gmail.com, ORCID: 0000-0002-1860-756X
****National Technical University of Ukraine, Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, Kyiv, Ukraine
E-mail: 2203883@ukr.net, ORCID: 0000-0003-2035-8846|
*****National University, Lviv Polytechnic, Lviv, Ukraine
E-mail: svitlana.s.hrynkevych@lpn.ua, ORCID: 0000-0002-3563-3989
******PHEI European University, Kyiv, Ukraine
E-mail: lavrus2017@gmail.com, ORCID: 0000-0002-9655-4467
*******Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University, Vinnytsia, Ukraine,
E-mail: s.kozlovskyy@donnu.edu.ua, ORCID: 0000-0003-0707-4996

Abstract

The article investigates the impact of force majeure crisis factors that appeared in the Ukrainian economy as a result of the global recession, the events of 2014-2021 (annexation of Crimea, temporary occupation of part of the industrial territories of Donetsk and Luhansk regions, military operations in Donbas, during the fight against pandemic (COVID-19), war in 2022 on the stable development of regions. Based on the analysis of official indicators of the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, it was proved that the said factors create additional multiplier and acceleration effects that adversely affect the dynamics of the gross regional product in the crisis conditions. It has been determined that the result of these effects is the transformation of crisis signals from a proactive to an active phase. The construction of a heat map of GRP correlation indicators made it possible to determine the existence of a disbalance between the economic and social development of the regions. Building a model of linear regression, allowed us to draw conclusions about the existing disbalance of GRP regions during the crisis and war.

Key words: crisis factors, gross regional product, sustainable, war, economic development, multiplier effect, acceleration effect, transformation of crisis signals, heat correlation map

Słowa kluczowe: czynniki kryzysowe, produkt regionalny brutto, zrównoważony, wojna, rozwój gospodarczy, efekt mnożnikowy, efekt akceleracji, transformacja sygnałów kryzysowych, mapa korelacji ciepła

Problemy Ekorozwoju 18(1)2023: 37-50

DOI: 10.35784/pe.2023.1.04

Submitted: 26.06.22, accepted: 5.09.22, published on-line: 1.01.2023

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